The Middle East is inching closer to a full-scale regional conflict after Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran’s massive ballistic missile barrage on Tuesday night. This marked a significant escalation in an already tense situation.
“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following the unprecedented attack.
Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets, the largest such attack in history. The strike triggered alarms across Israel, activating the country’s advanced defense systems.
Iran’s leadership described the assault as a warning, urging Israel to avoid direct war. Tehran threatened that any Israeli retaliation would result in “stronger and more painful” counterstrikes.
The escalation occurred just 24 hours after Israel launched a ground invasion in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, a militant group supported by Iran. This move came days after Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a strike on Beirut.
A Widening Regional Conflict due to Iran’s Missile Attack
Tuesday’s missile barrage marks a turning point in the conflict, shifting it from proxy warfare to direct confrontation between two major regional military powers.
According to an Israeli military source, several Iranian missiles hit military bases in Israel. However, the source noted that the facilities sustained no major damage.
This was the second time Iran launched a direct aerial attack on Israel this year. The magnitude of Tuesday’s attack far exceeded a previous April assault, when Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria.
In Gaza, Israel’s war against Hamas continues nearly a year after the Palestinian militant group launched its attack on Israel. The conflict has claimed over 41,000 lives, leading to a devastating humanitarian crisis and leaving much of the territory in ruins.
Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are all part of an Iranian-led coalition spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza, and Iraq. These groups have consistently attacked Israel and its allies since the conflict began, declaring they will not stop until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.
What could happen next after Iran’s Missile Attack?
Iran has framed its recent attack as a measured response to ongoing escalations by Israel.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that Tuesday’s missile strikes targeted Israeli security and military sites, in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders, including Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July.
Haniyeh’s assassination, which occurred after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president, left the world anticipating Iran’s response.
For months, no significant retaliation followed, and tensions seemed to cool, given the potential consequences of a full-scale war in the region.
However, Israel’s targeted killings and the escalating conflict in Lebanon have now drastically shifted the situation.
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a fiery speech aimed at Iran, declaring that Israel was “changing the balance of power in the region” and asserting that “there is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel will not reach.”
Netanyahu defended the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, stating it was necessary to allow thousands of residents displaced by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks to return to their homes near the Lebanon border. He also emphasized that the action was crucial in preventing a large-scale assault by Hezbollah on Israel.
US officials have long believed that both Iran and Hezbollah’s senior leadership have sought to avoid a full-scale war with Israel, despite periodic exchanges of fire. However, one of the biggest concerns for US and Arab diplomats is the possibility of Israel launching strikes inside Iran, particularly against its nuclear facilities. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has even called for Israel to retaliate by targeting Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran, however, has warned that any Israeli retaliation will lead to further escalation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tuesday’s missile barrage was “only a portion of our power.”
Israel may now be considering targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of its response to the missile attack, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior defense strategy analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Davis told CNN that from Israel’s perspective, it cannot allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, and there would likely be significant pressure within Netanyahu’s cabinet to launch strikes that would severely damage Iran’s nuclear program, possibly setting it back by years.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah remains a formidable threat, possessing a large arsenal of military assets that could be deployed against Israel.
However, Salam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, believes Iran may be hoping for restraint. Vakil suggested that Iran is trying to establish clear boundaries, aware that it is in a defensive position, with Hezbollah weakened and lacking the conventional military capabilities needed to challenge Israel directly.
US Involvement
The United States, Israel’s closest ally and largest weapons supplier, has pledged to coordinate closely with Israel in responding to the recent missile attack. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasized that there would be consequences for the attack.
In recent weeks, the US has ramped up its military presence in the region, moving additional troops and warships. US Navy destroyers even launched interceptors to counter Iranian missiles during the latest escalation.
Since the conflict in Gaza began, US troops have been increasingly targeted by Iran-backed proxy groups. In January, a drone attack on a US outpost in Jordan killed three US Army soldiers and injured over 30 others.
Throughout the conflict, the US has stood firmly by Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has reiterated that the US will “never hesitate” to protect its forces and interests in the Middle East, affirming that the US is prepared and “postured” to defend both its own troops and Israel.
Contributors to the report:
Lauren Izso, Ivana Kottasová, Paul P. Murphy, Andrew Raine, Allegra Goodwin, Lucas Lilieholm, Kylie Atwood, Avery Schmitz, Benjamin Brown, Gianluca Mezzofiore, MJ Lee, Katie Bo Lillis, Haley Britzky, Leila Gharagozlou, Tara John, Oren Liebermann, Natasha Bertrand, Jennifer Hauser, Jomana Karadsheh, Mostafa Salem, Artemis Moshtaghian, and Jeremy Diamond.
